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本文通过实证研究表明,银行家信心、企业家信心与经济增长波动之间以非对称的方式相互影响,市场信心管理应成为宏观调控的重要内容和手段之一;非预期的企业家与银行家信心变动能够加剧经济增长波动。为了促进经济增长,那些激励银行家与企业家信心的政策既要讲究政策力度,又要注重政策的连续性与可持续性。另外,信心调整具有刚性。与企业家信心相比较,银行家信心的衰减速度更快一些。当宏观经济政策同时激励了银行家与企业家信心时,这种不同步的变化可能会增大宏观调控政策效果的不确定性。
The empirical study shows that the confidence of bankers, the confidence of entrepreneurs and the fluctuations of economic growth affect each other in an asymmetric way, and market confidence management should become one of the important contents and means of macroeconomic regulation and control. Unexpected entrepreneurs and bankers Confidence changes can aggravate economic growth. In order to promote economic growth, those policies that inspire the confidence of bankers and entrepreneurs need to pay attention to the intensity of policies as well as the continuity and sustainability of policies. In addition, confidence adjustment is rigid. Compared with entrepreneurial confidence, banker confidence decay faster. When macroeconomic policies simultaneously stimulate the confidence of bankers and entrepreneurs, this unsynchronized change may increase the uncertainty of the effectiveness of macroeconomic control policies.