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基于大汶河流域戴村坝水文站1952~2014年径流、降水及蒸发资料,采用双累积曲线法、有序聚类法及游程检验法、Kendall秩次相关检验法、t检验法、累积量斜率变化率比较法对流域径流序列进行一致性分析和检验,并计算了气候变化和人类活动对径流量变化的贡献率。结果表明,大汶河戴村坝流域年径流序列呈逐渐下降趋势,且变化趋势显著,突变年份发生在1964年,一致性不好;研究流域降水量、蒸发量和人类活动对径流变化的相对贡献率分别为15.809%、23.678%和60.513%,说明在大汶河戴村坝流域,人类活动影响较自然气候变化对径流量变化的影响更大,研究结果可为大汶河流入东平湖后的一系列优化调度计算提供合理数据。
Based on the data of runoff, precipitation and evaporation of Dawangba Hydrological Station from 1952 to 2014 in Dawenhe River Basin, the double cumulative curve method, ordered clustering method and run test method, Kendall rank correlation test method, t test method, cumulant The slope change rate comparison method is used to analyze and test the consistency of runoff series. The contribution rate of climate change and human activities to runoff change is also calculated. The results showed that the annual runoff series of Daicunba Dam in Dawuhe River dropped gradually, and the trend of change was significant. The mutation year occurred in 1964, and the consistency was not good. The relative changes of runoff of precipitation, evaporation and human activities were studied The contribution rates are 15.809%, 23.678% and 60.513% respectively. This shows that the influence of human activities on the changes of runoff in natural disasters is greater than that in natural disasters caused by the human activities in Dai Village, A series of optimal scheduling calculations provide reasonable data.