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A股停发新股导致和H股的市值规模出现倒挂,06年在全流通格局下A股将结束边缘化。明年5月将具备新老划断的条件。A股模拟测算的发行市盈率为11.73倍,和港股发行市盈率相近,新老划断不会对现有估值体系产生冲击。与港股估值相比,境内航空、传媒、电子、建材行业高估的幅度大,受新老划断的冲击将会非常大。而银行、化工、运输、煤炭、黑色金属、房地产行业则明显低估,不会受到新老划断的冲击。香港近一年新股相对于发行价的溢价率为14.35%,如在新股发行阶段介入,将获可观的收益。06年上市公司盈利水平或将出现负增长,这会降低A股的动态估值吸引力。但是,导致本轮经济减速的因素应该是世界性的。因此,A股相对吸引力不会受影响。并购是一个价值活动,外资可以帮助境内目标企业找出公司核心竞争力的内外潜在的领域。我们采用市销率这个指标来判断行业或企业的外资并购潜力。外资并购的重点行业集中在资源类、资产类、限制少壁垒低的行业和特殊性行业。成熟市场上钢铁行业波动经验告诉我们,PE足够低不能作为中线买点的有力依据。而PB在0.8之下是相对安全的区域,ROE趋势方向的判断是很好的辅助选择中线买点的指标。在经济景气回落的过程中,股价表现稳定的行业次序依次是金融、日常消费、医疗保健、可选消费;而行业利润能继续保持增长或者稳定的行业次序是可选消费、日常消费、医疗保健、金融。我们设计了寻找增长的简单财务特征,即保持连续两年EPS增长超过20%,该年的预期(或者实际)增速高于前一年。结果惊喜地发现——神奇的20%增长,带来的是优异的投资效果。
A shares stop new shares led to the H shares and the market value of upside down, in 2006 under the pattern of A shares will be the end of the marginalization. May next year will have the old and new conditions. The simulated earnings of A shares were estimated at 11.73x, which is similar to the issue price-earnings ratio of Hong Kong stocks. The old and new arbitrage will not have an impact on the existing valuation system. Compared with the valuation of Hong Kong stocks, domestic aviation, media, electronics, building materials industry overvalued a large extent, the impact of the new and old will be very large. The banking, chemical, transportation, coal, ferrous metals, real estate industry is significantly underestimated, will not be delinked by the impact of old and new. In the recent one year, the premium rate of new shares in Hong Kong over the issue price was 14.35%. If intervened during the IPO phase, there will be substantial gains. The profitability of listed companies in 2006 or negative growth, which will reduce the A-share dynamic valuation attractive. However, the factors that have caused this round of economic slowdown should be global. Therefore, the relative attractiveness of A shares will not be affected. Mergers and acquisitions (M & A) are a value activity where foreign capital can help potential target companies find potential internal and external areas of the company’s core competitiveness. We use the market sales rate of this indicator to determine the industry or business of foreign M & A potential. The focus of foreign mergers and acquisitions focus on resources, assets, limited barriers and low barriers to industries and special industries. Steel market volatility in mature markets tells us that PE is low enough to be used as a strong basis for midline buying. The PB below 0.8 is relatively safe area, ROE trend direction of the judge is a good indicator of the midline to buy a good choice. In the course of economic downturn, the order of industries with stable stock prices followed is that of finance, daily consumption, healthcare and alternative consumption; while the industry profits can continue to grow or stabilize in an orderly fashion with optional consumption, daily consumption, and healthcare ,financial. We have designed a simple financial profile for growth, keeping EPS growth of more than 20% for two consecutive years, with the expected (or actual) growth of the year up from the previous year. The result was pleasantly surprised to find that magical 20% growth has brought about excellent investment results.