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目的探讨时间序列分析在细菌性痢疾发病预测中的应用,验证分析模型的可行性与适用性。方法利用阜阳市2009年1月～2013年6月细菌性痢疾发病资料,拟合自回归移动平均(ARIMA)模型,对阜阳市2013年7～11月各月发病情况进行预测评价。结果建立ARIMA(1,2,0)(0,1,0)12模型,预测结果基本符合实际发病变动趋势,验证了该模型的可行性。结论 ARIMA模型可用于模拟细菌性痢疾发病在时间序列上的变化趋势分析,并进行短期预测。
Objective To explore the application of time series analysis in the prediction of the incidence of bacterial dysentery and to verify the feasibility and applicability of the analysis model. Methods The incidence of bacterial dysentery from January 2009 to June 2013 in Fuyang City was used to fit the autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) model and predict the incidence in each month from July to November in 2013 in Fuyang city. Results The ARIMA (1,2,0) (0,1,0) 12 model was established and the prediction results were basically in line with the trend of actual incidence and the feasibility of the model was verified. Conclusion The ARIMA model can be used to simulate the trend of time-series analysis of the incidence of bacterial dysentery and make short-term prediction.