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由于极端气候的明显加剧,如何合理外延推算多年一遇设计波高对海洋工程更加重要。目前波浪资料年限普遍偏短,而使用较多的P-Ⅲ型曲线法浪费资料严重。P-G(Poisson-Gumbel)复合极值法能提高资料利用率,解决资料短缺的矛盾。文章分析了某海域55年台风浪资料,对P-G复合极值法的阀值敏感性进行分析,可知P-G复合极值曲线和P-Ⅲ型曲线大致相近,P-G复合极值法的阀值敏感性较低,在较短年限时P-G复合极值法更稳定。
Due to the obvious exacerbation of extreme weather, how to reasonably extend the calculation once in a while to design wave height is more important for offshore engineering. At present, the data of wave data are generally short and the data of P-Ⅲ curve method with more data is more serious. P-G (Poisson-Gumbel) composite extremum method can improve data utilization and solve the contradiction of data shortage. The article analyzes the 55-year typhoon wave data in a certain sea area and analyzes the threshold sensitivity of the PG compound extreme value method. It can be seen that the PG composite extreme value curve and the P-Ⅲ type curve are approximately similar, and the PG composite extreme value threshold sensitivity Lower, PG composite extremum method is more stable in shorter years.