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复经验正交函数（ＣＥＯＦ）是一种新的物理场的分解方法，它除了可以揭示物理场的时、空分布和变化规律外，还可以反映波动或平流效应。故本文首次将该方法移植到预报方法研究上来，建立了渤海、黄海的表、底层水温预报方案。为了检验该预报方案的可靠性，试报的结果除与实测值进行比较外，同时还与依据经验正交函数（ＥＯＦ）建立预报方法的预报结果进行了对比。结果表明，对于南、北黄海表层水温的试报结果，ＣＥＯＦ方法试报的平均绝对误差比ＥＯＦ方法预报的误差平均小０．２℃；而对于底层水温，两种方法的预报误差相近。
The Complex Empirical Orthogonal Function (CEOF) is a new method of decomposition of the physical field. In addition to revealing the physical, temporal and spatial distribution and variation of the physical field, CEOF can also reflect the effects of fluctuations or advection. For the first time, this paper transplanted this method to the study of prediction methods, and established the table of Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea, and the prediction scheme of water temperature at the bottom. In order to test the reliability of the forecasting scheme, the results of the trial reporting are compared with the measured values and compared with the forecasting results based on the empirical orthogonal function (EOF). The results show that the average absolute error of the CEOF method is 0.2% less than the error of the EOF method on average for the south and north Yellow Sea surface water temperatures. For the bottom water temperature, the errors of the two methods are similar.