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基于燃气出租车的运营特点,本文采用多阶段动态博弈思想讨论了一个研究周期内燃气在各个时刻选择加气概率的均衡解,分析了三个主要因素(燃气出租车数量、出租车运营收益及等待成本)变化对出租车加气的均衡概率和期望收益的影响。在一定条件下,燃气出租车数量的变化引起均衡概率的不同分布,但总收益和等待成本的变化对均衡概率的影响较小。政府可以通过直接或间接的政策调整影响这些因素,使得燃气出租车在合适的期望收益条件下达到动态均衡。
Based on the operational characteristics of gas taxis, this paper uses a multi-stage dynamic game theory to discuss the equilibrium solution of gas selection probability at each moment in a research cycle, and analyzes three main factors (gas taxi number, taxi operating profit and Waiting costs) on the equilibrium probability and expected return of taxi refueling. Under certain conditions, the changes in the number of gas taxis cause different distributions of equilibrium probabilities, but the changes in total revenue and waiting costs have less effect on the equilibrium probabilities. The government can affect these factors through direct or indirect policy adjustments to achieve a dynamic equilibrium of gas taxis under suitable expected returns.