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LTCM出现败象的征兆始于1997年的东亚金融危机,但基于基金管理人员对信息不对称的识别能力,败象显露得还不明显。但是到了1998年5月,基金回报率已经大幅下跌至亏损,为-6.42%,至6月进一步降至-10.14%,总资本减少了4.61亿美元,从而导致7月份所罗门兄弟公司的套利业务退出该基金。爱因斯坦曾说过:“人类社会所面临的最大威胁,并不是机器有朝一日会像人类那样思考,而是人类变得像机器那样思考。”而今,人类正如同齿轮般每日辛苦地运转,留给自由思考的时间越来越少。多数人,或迫于忙碌,或出于懒惰,他们从来不问为什么,所关心的只是结论。
The symptom of LTCM’s failure began with the East Asian financial crisis in 1997, but the obvious manifestation of this failure has not been obvious based on the ability of fund managers to identify information asymmetries. However, by May 1998, the fund’s rate of return had fallen sharply to a loss of -6.42%, further to -10.14% in June, a decrease of $ 461 million in total capital, resulting in the withdrawal of Arumon’s Arbitrage business in July The fund. Einstein once said: “The greatest threat to human society is not that machines will one day think like human beings, but that human beings will think like machines.” Nowadays, mankind is in the same daily gear Working, leaving fewer and fewer free time to think. Most people, either busy or out of laziness, never ask why, are concerned only with conclusions.