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采用Mann-Kendall非参数检验方法对和田河流域两个主要气象站点月、年平均气温序列和逐月、年平均降水量序列进行趋势检验,在此基础上运用R/S分析方法,估算各时间序列的Hurst指数,预测该流域气温、降水量的未来变化趋势及其持续性,并采用随机重排法对估算结果进行了稳定性检验。分析结果表明:和田河流域在过去近50年内,气温变化趋势以增温为主,秋、冬季增温趋势尤为显著;降水量变化总体上呈增加趋势,夏季降雨量增加趋势较明显;未来的气温、降水量变化趋势表现为较强的长程依赖性,说明在未来一段时间内,其上升趋势还将持续一段时间。
The Mann-Kendall nonparametric test was used to test the trend of month, annual mean temperature series and monthly and annual average precipitation series of two main meteorological stations in the Hetian River Basin. Based on this, R / S analysis was used to estimate the time The Hurst index of the sequence is used to predict the future trend of the temperature and precipitation in the basin and its sustainability. The stability of the estimation is tested by random rearrangement method. The results show that in the past 50 years, the trend of temperature change in Hetian River Basin is dominated by warming, especially in autumn and winter. The change of precipitation generally shows an increasing trend, and the trend of increasing rainfall in summer is obvious. In the future The trend of temperature and precipitation shows a strong long-range dependence, indicating that the upward trend will continue for some time in the future.