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利用基于贝叶斯统计方法的Schaefer模型对西南大西洋阿根廷滑柔鱼资源量进行评估,并对评估结果进行风险分析.结果表明:正态分布方案和基准方案两个模型参数的预测值及估算的生物学参考点接近,但均大于对数正态分布方案.3种方案下,2001—2010年的捕捞死亡率都远低于限制参考点F0.1,2001—2010年的渔获量也小于最大可持续产量(MSY),表明西南大西洋阿根廷滑柔鱼资源目前处于良好开发状况,没有遭受过度捕捞.决策分析表明,在相同的收获率情况下,对数正态分布方案得到的2025年资源量最低、资源崩溃的概率最大.3种方案下2025年渔获量最大时的收获率均为0.6,但是若将管理策略定为收获率0.6,则2025年以后资源量存在一定风险,因此较为保守的管理策略应将收获率控制在0.4左右,渔获量在55万t左右.
The Schaefer model based on Bayesian statistical method was used to evaluate the resource of S. glomerata in the Southwest Atlantic and the risk analysis was carried out.The results showed that the predicted and estimated values of two parameters of the normal distribution and the benchmark Biological reference points are close but larger than the logarithm normal distribution scheme.The fishing mortality of 2001-2010 under the three schemes is much lower than the limit reference point F0.1, The maximum sustainable yield (MSY) indicates that the South American, Atlantic Catfish resource is currently well under development and has not been overfished. The decision analysis shows that the 2025 resource obtained from the lognormal distribution program at the same harvest rate The lowest amount of resources, the probability of the collapse of the resources of the maximum .3 kinds of programs in 2025, the maximum catch rate of 0.6 when the harvest, but if the management strategy for the harvest rate of 0.6, 2025 after the amount of resources there is a certain risk, so more Conservative management strategies should be controlled at about 0.4 harvest rate, catches at 550,000 t or so.