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目的构建北京市房山区手足口病发病的SARIMA模型并进行预测。方法应用83.0.1软件程序包中的TSA对2007—2013年房山区手足口病月发病率构建模型,并对2014年各月手足口病月发病率进行预测和评价。结果 SARIMA(0,0,1)(0,1,1)_(12)模型较好地拟合既往时间段发病率,对2014年各月的预测值符合手足口病实际发病率变动趋势,对2015年手足口病发病率进行了预测。结论 SARIMA(0,0,1)(0,1,1)_(12)模型能够很好拟合手足口病月发病率数据,可用于房山区手足口病发病趋势的短期预测,为下一步采取针对性防控措施提供科学依据。
Objective To construct and predict the SARIMA model of HFMD in Fangshan District of Beijing. Methods The monthly incidence of HFMD in Fangshan District from 2007 to 2013 was constructed using TSA in the 83.0.1 software package. The monthly incidence rate of HFMD was predicted and evaluated in each month of 2014. Results The SARIMA (0,0,1) (0,1,1) _ (12) model fitted the morbidity of the past time well, and the predicted value of each month in 2014 was in line with the trend of actual morbidity of HFMD, The incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease in 2015 was predicted. Conclusion The SARIMA (0,0,1) (0,1,1) _ (12) model can well fit the monthly incidence rate of hand-foot-mouth disease, which can be used for the short-term prediction of the incidence of HFMD in Fangshan district. To take targeted prevention and control measures to provide a scientific basis.