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目的:探索系统动力学仿真模型在卫生总费用推算中的应用。方法:依据系统动力学建模原理,采用VensimPLE 5.8b仿真模拟软件建立卫生总费用的系统仿真模型,推算2005—2009年卫生总费用水平并与核算报告值进行对比。结果:系统动力学模型的推算结果优于其他推算方法,非常接近报告值,推算值与报告值的相对平均误差为0.71%。结论:系统动力学模型应用于卫生总费用推算效果良好,可为卫生总费用仿真研究增添一个新工具。
Objective: To explore the application of system dynamics simulation model in the estimation of total health expenditure. Methods: According to the principles of system dynamics modeling, a systematic simulation model of total health expenditure was established by using VensimPLE 5.8b simulation software. The total health expenditure of 2005-2009 was calculated and compared with the reported value. Results: The results of the system dynamics model are superior to other methods and are close to the reported values. The relative average error between the estimated values and the reported values is 0.71%. Conclusion: The application of system dynamics model to health total cost estimation is effective and can add a new tool for the simulation of total health expenditure.