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本研究反映住宅基本面价值的所有权成本与投资者预期对北京、上海、广州、深圳等国内四大城市住宅价格波动的相对影响程度。本文通过使用四大城市1993年第一季度至2008年第二季度的季度非平衡面板数据的经验分析表明,广州与深圳住宅所有权成本可能不是导致近年两大城市房价膨胀的主要因素,而北京与上海的住宅基本面价值对住宅价格波动影响相对大一些。投资者两种预期——基于历史住宅价格增长率的未来价格增长预期与货币幻觉的共同影响导致北京、上海与深圳三大城市房价过度膨胀。对于广州,投资者的历史真实房价增长预期显著推动当地房价上涨,但货币幻觉影响的可能性仍需进一步确认。四大城市住宅市场可能存在泡沫。
This study reflects the relative impact of the cost of ownership of residential fundamental values and investor expectations on residential price fluctuations in the four major cities in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen. Empirical analysis using quarters of unbalanced panel data from the first quarter of 1993 to the second quarter of 2008 shows that the cost of housing ownership in Guangzhou and Shenzhen may not be the major factor contributing to house price inflation in the two major cities in recent years, Shanghai’s housing fundamentals have a relatively large impact on housing price volatility. Both investors’ expectations - the combined effect of future price growth based on historical residential price growth and currency illusion led to over-expansion of house prices in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen. For Guangzhou, investors’ real historical real house prices growth expectation significantly contributed to the local housing prices, but the possibility of monetary illusion still needs further confirmation. The residential market in the four major cities may have a bubble.