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今年一季度我国锌矿进口量减少,未来几个月锌矿进口依然会维持低位,因此预计全年锌矿进口下滑或维持在15%~30%左右。预计我国2016年锌矿供应增长,但实际锌矿增长或不及预期。同时锌冶炼厂受各种因素影响,开工率低于同期。未来进口下滑及产量下滑背景下去库存可能继续加大,带来锌价反弹。
In the first quarter of this year, the volume of China’s zinc ore imports will decrease. The import of zinc ore will remain at a low level in the next few months. Therefore, the annual import of zinc ore is expected to decline or remain at around 15% to 30%. China’s zinc supply is expected to increase in 2016, but the actual growth of zinc ore may not be as expected. At the same time, zinc smelter affected by various factors, operating rate lower than the same period. Decline in future imports and output decline in the context of inventory may continue to increase, bringing zinc prices rebound.