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过去十余年间全球制造业重心从发达国家向发展中国家的转移在一定程度上加速了温室气体排放量的增长。假设1995~2009年制造业重心未从发达国家转移至中国,在满足同等量最终需求的前提下,全球生产过程产生的温室气体排放量增幅将显著下降。其中,CO2排放量增幅将从67亿吨降至41亿吨;CH4排放量增幅将从3.4亿吨降至2.7亿吨;N2O排放量增幅将从1557万吨降至1156万吨。通过模拟测算制造业从中国进一步转移至南亚和非洲等欠发达地区对温室气体排放的影响可知,该转移将使得全球温室气体排放进一步增加,年度增排CO2约8.8亿吨,CH4约450万吨,N2O约21万吨。这是由于与发达国家相比,中国、南亚和非洲等发展中国家普遍有较低的能源效率和清洁能源使用比率。而在现行联合国气候变化框架的生产者责任制度下,这部分额外的温室气体减排责任均需由发展中国家承担。鉴于制造业重心的转移多由跨国公司主导,且相关经济利益均由发达国家获取,因此发达国家应该更多承担这部分额外排放的减排责任,通过技术转移、扩大在发展中国家的低碳技术研发和应用投资等手段,使得从事制造业生产特别是低端制造业生产的发展中国家能够应用更高能效、更低碳的生产技术,以减缓温室气体排放增速,控制气候变暖效应,实现全球可持续发展。
The shift of the global manufacturing focus from developed countries to developing countries over the past decade or so has accelerated the growth of greenhouse gas emissions to a certain extent. Assuming that the manufacturing center of gravity has not been transferred from developed countries to China from 1995 to 2009, the growth of greenhouse gas emissions from global production processes will drop significantly while meeting the same final demand. Among them, the CO2 emissions growth will drop from 6.7 billion tons to 4.1 billion tons; CH4 emissions growth will be reduced from 340 million tons to 270 million tons; N2O emissions growth will fall from 15.57 million tons to 11.56 million tons. By simulating the impact of manufacturing relocation from China to less-developed regions such as South Asia and Africa on greenhouse gas emissions, we can see that the transfer will further increase global greenhouse gas emissions with an annual increase of about 880 million tons of CO2 and about 4.5 million tons of CH4 , N2O about 21 million tons. This is because developing countries such as China, South Asia and Africa generally have lower rates of energy efficiency and clean energy use than developed countries. Under the current system of producer responsibility under the UN climate change framework, this additional responsibility for greenhouse gas emission reduction needs to be borne by developing countries. In view of the fact that the shift in manufacturing center of gravity is dominated by multinational corporations and the relevant economic benefits are obtained by the developed countries, the developed countries should assume more responsibility for the emission reduction of this part of the extra emission. By means of technology transfer, the low-carbon Technology research and development and application investment so that developing countries engaged in manufacturing, especially in low-end manufacturing, can apply more energy-efficient and low-carbon production technologies to slow down the growth of greenhouse gas emissions and control the effects of climate warming , To achieve global sustainable development.