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空间集聚所产生的正外部性,是制造业增长的重要动力。本文以长三角城市群为例,利用2003-2011年21个行业的面板数据估计制造业集聚的增长效应。研究发现:(1)长三角城市群制造业的专业化水平和空间集中程度都存在下降趋势。(2)控制了资本增长率、城市群规模等变量后,专业化水平会促进制造业增长,而空间集中程度对制造业增长有抑制作用。(3)制造业集聚的增长效应主要集中在非资源依赖型行业,在资源依赖型行业并不显著。本文的结论意味着,虽然群外转移削弱了增长优势,长三角城市群仍可发挥群内转移所产生的正外部性,保持制造业增长。
The positive externalities arising from the agglomeration of space are an important driving force behind the growth of the manufacturing industry. This paper takes the urban agglomeration in the Yangtze River Delta as an example to estimate the growth effect of manufacturing agglomeration based on the panel data of 21 industries from 2003 to 2011. The findings are as follows: (1) The level of specialization and spatial concentration of manufacturing industries in the urban agglomeration of the Yangtze River Delta all have declining trend. (2) After controlling for such variables as capital growth rate and city group size, the specialization level will promote the growth of manufacturing industry, while the concentration of space will have an inhibitory effect on the growth of manufacturing industry. (3) The growth effects of manufacturing agglomeration are mainly concentrated in non-resource-dependent industries, but not significant in resource-dependent industries. The conclusion of this paper implies that, although the out-of-group transfer has weakened the growth advantage, the urban agglomeration in the Yangtze River Delta can still exert the positive externalities arising from the intra-group transfer and maintain the manufacturing growth.