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目的探讨中国(未包括香港、澳门特别行政区和台湾地区,下同)2013年流行性乙型脑炎(乙脑)发病的空间聚集性。方法收集中国2013年分县(区、市、旗,下同)乙脑报告病例数、常住人口数、县级行政边界地理数据等,采用空间统计软件(Geo DA 1.66)分析乙脑病例的全局和局部自相关性,采用时间-空间扫描统计软件(Sa Tscan9.41)进行回顾性时空扫描统计。结果中国2013年共报告乙脑2178例,796个县有病例报告。全局和局部自相关莫兰指数(Moran’s I值)均为0.46,差异均有统计学意义(P=0.001),高-高聚集区215个县,低-低聚集区44个县,高-低聚集区64个县,低-高聚集区37个县。乙脑病例存在6个时空聚集性。结论中国2013年乙脑发病存在时空聚集性,聚集性分析可为乙脑发病影响因素研究及完善乙脑预防控制措施提供线索。
Objective To explore the spatial clustering of 2013 Japanese encephalitis (JE) in China (excluding Hong Kong, Macao Special Administrative Region and Taiwan). Methods We collected the number of JE reported cases, resident population and county-level administrative boundaries in China in 2013 (Geo DA 1.66), and analyzed the overall situation of JE cases And local autocorrelation, retrospective spatio-temporal scans were performed using the time-space-based scanning statistical software (Sa Tscan 9.41). Results In 2013, China reported 2178 cases of JE and reported cases in 796 counties. The global and local autocorrelation Moran’s I values were 0.46, with significant difference (P = 0.001), 215 counties with high-high concentration areas and 44 counties with low-low concentration areas, with high-low Agglomeration area 64 counties, low - high concentration area 37 counties. JE cases there are six space-time aggregation. Conclusions There is spatiotemporal aggregation of encephalitis in China in 2013. Aggregation analysis may provide clues for studying the influencing factors of encephalitis and preventing and controlling encephalitis.