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本文构建了一个居民储蓄行为函数,选取13个国家1991～2007年的面板数据研究了居民储蓄率的五大决定因素——收入和经济增长、利率与价格、外部储蓄、人口结构与资本市场发展,重点考察以股票市场为代表的资产市场的作用。采用定截距固定效应模型的不同方法得出的结论是:反映资产市场发展的3个指标中,股票价格和金融业产值比率都对居民储蓄率有显著负向影响,而股市规模比率有微弱正向影响。总体上看,资产市场发展对储蓄的综合作用仍是负向的,资产市场能够通过分流储蓄和财富效应两条作用渠道降低居民储蓄率。
This paper constructs a household saving behavior function. The panel data of 13 countries from 1991 to 2007 are used to study the five determinants of household saving rate - income and economic growth, interest rates and prices, external savings, population structure and capital market development. Focus on the stock market as the representative of the role of the asset market. The different approaches using fixed-intercept fixed-effects models lead to the conclusion that among the three indicators reflecting the development of the asset market, both the stock price and the financial industry output ratio have a significant negative impact on the household saving rate, while the stock market scale ratio is weak Positive impact. On the whole, the combined effect of asset market development on saving is still negative. Asset markets can reduce the household saving rate through the two channels of diversion and wealth.