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以昆明新机场为背景,对新机场空中交通安全性评估问题从理论和实际应用方面进行了比较系统、深入的研究。本文首先概述了国内外安全评价技术理论与方法的发展状况;进而从理论上探讨了民航空中交通管制安全评估的方法和作用,提出了针对空中交通安全的评价模型;其次,以即将投入运行的昆明新机场为背景,针对新机场空管运行的具体特点,根据已有的理论模型,采用层次分析法与故障树分析法相结合的办法,提出了空中交通安全模型的建立与分析方法;再次,论文根据系统评估出来的结果,系统地分析了各种制约限制因素对新机场空中交通安全运行评估结果的影响;最后,本文说明了把故障树分析法用于民航空管安全性评价的可行性,并对空中交通安全性评价的研究进行了展望。
Taking the Kunming new airport as a background, a comparatively systematic and in-depth study has been carried out on the issue of air traffic safety assessment of the new airport from both theoretical and practical aspects. This paper first outlines the development of the theory and method of safety evaluation technology both at home and abroad; then discusses the method and function of air traffic control safety assessment in civil aviation theoretically, puts forward the evaluation model for air traffic safety; secondly, with the coming into operation Kunming new airport as the background, in view of the specific characteristics of the new airport air traffic control, according to the existing theoretical model, the method of combining AHP and fault tree analysis method proposed air traffic safety model establishment and analysis method; Thirdly, Based on the results of system evaluation, the paper systematically analyzes the impact of various constraints on the evaluation results of the new airport’s air traffic safety. Finally, this paper illustrates the feasibility of using fault tree analysis in the safety assessment of air traffic control , And the research of air traffic safety evaluation is prospected.