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根据收益—成本权衡理论,构建了农户减灾收益与成本理论分析框架,基于北京市郊区农户的调查数据,采用Logistic模型分析农户对森林灾害减灾需求的主要影响因素。结果表明,北京市郊区72.11%的农户有减灾需求,尤其对村集体帮助、政府救济和森林保险等减灾措施的需求较大,火灾、风灾和病虫害是影响农户生产生活的最主要灾害类型。农户对减灾措施的认知程度、风险偏好、林业收入占总收入比、三年内受灾严重程度和对政府防灾救灾体系的满意程度对减灾需求影响显著;而农户家庭年均纯收入、林业生产人数、对减灾措施了解程度、林地规模、林地质量、林地位置、树种及3年内受灾次数对减灾需求影响不显著。因此,政府通过提高农户对减灾措施的认知水平,并根据农户需求制定有针对性的减灾措施,建立健全林业防灾救灾体系是实现对林业防灾减灾措施有效供给的重要途径。
Based on the revenue-cost trade-off theory, this paper constructs a theoretical framework for analyzing the benefits and costs of mitigation for farmers. Based on the survey data of rural households in Beijing suburbs, the main influencing factors of farmers’ demand for mitigation of forest disasters are analyzed using Logistic model. The results showed that 72.11% farmers in suburban Beijing had the demand of disaster reduction, especially the need of mitigation measures such as village collective help, government relief and forest insurance. Fire, wind disaster and pest and disease were the main types of disaster affecting the production and living of farmers. Farmers’ cognition of risk reduction measures, risk appetite, total income ratio of forestry, the severity of the disaster within three years and the degree of satisfaction with the government disaster prevention and relief system have a significant impact on the demand for disaster reduction. However, the annual average net income of farmers, forestry production The number of people, the degree of understanding of disaster reduction measures, the scale of forest land, the quality of woodland, the location of forest land, the species of tree species and the number of disasters within three years have no significant impact on the demand for disaster reduction. Therefore, the government has established an effective forestry disaster prevention and mitigation measures by establishing a sound forestry disaster prevention and relief system, which is an important way to achieve effective supply of forestry disaster prevention and mitigation measures by raising farmers ’awareness of disaster mitigation measures and formulating targeted mitigation measures according to farmers’ needs.