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为探讨我国五大粮食主产区对抗旱能力影响较显著的敏感性因素,对主产区农业抗旱能力进行综合评价,进而从指标选取、指标权重及指标合成方法3个方面对评价结果进行敏感性分析。结果表明,五大粮食主产区的农业抗旱能力由强到弱排序为黄淮海平原>长江中游及江淮地区>四川盆地>松嫩平原>三江平原。同一指标对不同区域的农业抗旱能力评价结果影响程度不同,耕地有效灌溉率、农机动力系数和人均GDP中的任何一个指标都会引起黄淮海平原区、长江中游及江淮地区以及四川盆地农业抗旱能力排名发生变动,而对三江平原和松嫩平原的排名却无影响。同时,不同区域影响农业抗旱能力的敏感性因素有所差异,除农业干旱程度、耕地有效灌溉率是各粮食主产区农业抗旱能力均最为敏感的影响因素之外,不同区域对人均GDP、农机动力系数等指标表现出不同的敏感性。相比于加法合成,本研究结果显示乘法合成对指标水平的差异反映更为敏感,区分各评价对象的灵敏度相对加法合成更高些。
In order to explore the sensitive factors that affect the drought resistance of the five major grain-producing areas in China, the comprehensive assessment of the ability of drought-resistance in agriculture in the main producing areas was carried out, and then the sensitivity of the evaluation results was evaluated from three aspects of index selection, index weights and index synthesis analysis. The results showed that the drought resistance capacity of the five major grain-producing areas ranked from strong to weak for the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain> the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and the JAC region> the Sichuan Basin> the Songnen Plain> Sanjiang Plain. The same index has different influence on the assessment results of agricultural drought resistance in different regions. Any index of effective irrigation rate of farmland, dynamic coefficient of agricultural machinery and GDP per capita will cause the ranking of agricultural drought resistance in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, the Jianghuai region and the Sichuan Basin Change, but the Sanjiang Plain and the Songnen Plain has no effect on the rankings. At the same time, the sensitive factors that affect the ability of drought resistance in different regions are different. Except for the degree of agricultural drought and the effective irrigation rate of cultivated land, which are the most sensitive influencing factors of agricultural drought resistance in the main grain-producing areas, the impacts of different regions on per capita GDP, Dynamical coefficients and other indicators show different sensitivities. Compared with the additive synthesis, the results of this study show that the multiplicative synthesis is more sensitive to the difference of the index level, and the sensitivity of each evaluation object is higher than that of the additive synthesis.