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近年来,在国内外学者关于全球经济失衡的研究中,金融发展因素以及由此衍生出的新型国际分工形态越来越受到重视。本文拟从金融发展不对称视角出发,借助双边随机前沿模型测度金融发展不对称程度,在此基础上度量全球经济失衡的最优水平。通过分析计量模型估计结果得出如下结论:各国或地区间经常账户平衡均不同程度的偏离最优水平,即各国或地区间经常账户平衡的调整存在异质性,且全球经济失衡的调整依赖于美国、石油输出国、调整刚性国等经济体的调整;同时,此次全球金融危机对全球经济失衡的形成机制产生了冲击,推动了其发展模式的转变。
In recent years, in the research of domestic and foreign scholars on global economic imbalance, the factors of financial development and the new forms of international division of labor derived therefrom have drawn more and more attention. This article intends to measure the asymmetry of financial development from the perspective of asymmetric financial development by means of a bilateral stochastic frontier model and then measures the optimal level of global economic imbalance. By analyzing the results of the econometric model, the following conclusions are drawn: the balance of current account in all countries and regions deviates from the optimal level to varying degrees, that is, there is heterogeneity in the adjustment of the current account balance among different countries or regions, and the adjustment of the global economic imbalance depends on The United States, the oil-exporting countries and the adjustment of rigid economies. At the same time, the global financial crisis hit the global economic imbalance mechanism and pushed forward the transformation of its development mode.