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目的分析2005—2012年六安市肺结核流行特征,并用差分自回归移动平均模型(ARIMA)对肺结核流行趋势进行预测,为肺结核的预防和控制提供科学依据。方法收集《中国疾病预防控制信息系统》中2005—2012年六安市肺结核疫情数据,采用描述性流行病学方法进行分析。应用SPSS 17.0统计软件对六安市2005—2012年的肺结核月发病率建立ARIMA模型,以2013年1—7月肺结核实际发病率对模型进行验证,应用该模型对2013年全年月发病率进行预测。结果六安市2005—2012年共报告肺结核病例34 023例,年平均发病率为70.32/10万,2005年发病率最高为84.09/10万,2010年发病率最低为52.89/10万,不同年份间发病率差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。3—4月为高发季节(6 741例,占19.81%)。≥60岁年龄组发病数最多(15 107例,占44.40%);男、女发病数分别为25 278和8 745例,男女性别比为2.89∶1;职业以农民为主(27 582例,占81.07%)。寿县发病率(87.02/10万)最高,金寨县发病率(50.89/10万)最低,不同县(区)间年平均发病率差异有统计学意义(P<0.01)。六安市肺结核月发病率模型为ARIMA(0,1,1)×(0,1,1)12(不含常数项)。模型预测的2013年肺结核月发病率在2.41/10万~4.41/10万之间,疫情基本平稳,与前几年水平相接近,不会出现较大的流行。结论六安市肺结核预防和控制的重点应放在老年人群,尤其是农村地区的老年人。ARIMA(0,1,1)×(0,1,1)12(不含常数项)模型预测效果良好,适用于六安市肺结核流行趋势预测。
Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of pulmonary tuberculosis in Lu’an City from 2005 to 2012 and predict the prevalence of pulmonary tuberculosis by using the differential autoregressive moving average model (ARIMA), so as to provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of pulmonary tuberculosis. Methods The data of epidemic situation of pulmonary tuberculosis in Lu’an City of China from 2005 to 2012 collected in China Disease Prevention and Control Information System were analyzed by descriptive epidemiological method. The SPSS 17.0 statistical software was used to establish ARIMA model of monthly incidence of tuberculosis in Lu’an City from 2005 to 2012. The model was validated by the actual incidence of tuberculosis from January to July in 2013. The model was applied to the monthly incidence rate of 2013 prediction. Results A total of 34 023 pulmonary tuberculosis cases were reported in Lu’an from 2005 to 2012, with an average annual incidence of 70.32 / 100 000. The highest incidence was 84.09 / 100 000 in 2005 and the lowest incidence in 2010 was 52.89 / 100 000. Different years The difference between the two groups was statistically significant (P <0.05). March to April is the high season (6 741 cases, accounting for 19.81%). The incidence was highest in ≥60 age group (15 107 cases, accounting for 44.40%). Male and female incidence was 25 278 and 8 745 respectively, with a male-female ratio of 2.89:1. The main occupation was farmer (27 582 cases, Accounting for 81.07%). The incidence of Shouxian County was the highest (87.02 / 100000), the lowest was Jinzhai County (50.89 / 100000), the difference was statistically significant (P <0.01). The monthly incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis in Lu’an City is ARIMA (0,1,1) × (0,1,1) 12 (excluding constant items). The incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis in 2013 predicted by the model ranged from 2.41 / 100000 to 4.41 / 100000 and the epidemic was basically stable with a level similar to that of previous years, so there would be no major epidemic. Conclusion The focus of prevention and control of tuberculosis in Lu’an should be placed on the elderly population, especially the elderly in rural areas. ARIMA (0,1,1) × (0,1,1) 12 (without constant term) model has good prediction effect and is suitable for the prediction of tuberculosis epidemic trend in Lu’an.