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经济周期波动的新趋势80年代以来,西方一些主要国家,其经济周期波动表现出“微波化趋势”,但这并不等于说今后的经济增长将会进入一种“无波动状态”。从世界各国的情况看,即使一些国家在较为平稳的高速增长时期,也都是有波动的,只不过波动的幅度相对较小而已。以美国为例,从1959年到1969年,美国经济曾处于一个所谓“长期繁荣时期”,没有出现严格意义上的衰退,即没有出现负增长,GNP 增长率年均4.2%。这期间仍有三次波动,每次波动的峰谷落差分别为3.6个百分点、1.2个百分点和2.9个百分点。
New Trend of Economic Cycle Fluctuation Since the 1980s, some major western countries have shown “trend of microwaveization” in their economic cycle. However, this does not mean that economic growth in the future will enter a state of “no fluctuation.” From the perspective of the countries in the world, even some countries are in a period of relatively steady high-speed growth. They all fluctuate but only relatively small fluctuations. Take the United States as an example. From 1959 to 1969, the U.S. economy was in a so-called “long-term prosperity period” with no strict recession, that is, no negative growth. The GNP growth rate averaged 4.2% annually. There were still three fluctuations during this period, with a drop of 3.6 percentage points, 1.2 percentage points and 2.9 percentage points in each fluctuation.