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本文分析了54年来北半球500hPa环流指数与冬季洪泽湖入湖水量的关系发现:西太平洋副热带高压(以下简称为副高)面积指数小于6,有83%的入湖水量大于16×108m3,有50%的入湖水量大于20×108m3;极涡强度在1～5hPa之间,下一年入湖水量上升10×108m3。本文将月入湖水量分级作为预报量,利用北半球500hPa环流指数月平均值的变化指标作为预报因子,建立月入湖水量长期预测方法。
This paper analyzes the relationship between the circulation index of 500hPa in the northern hemisphere and the inflow of Hongze Lake in winter in 54 years. It is found that the area index of the subtropical high in the western Pacific (hereinafter referred to as the subtropical high) is less than 6, 83% of the inflowing water is more than 16 × 108m3 50% of the water into the lake is greater than 20 × 108m3; polar vortex intensity between 1 ~ 5hPa, the next year the amount of water into the lake increased 10 × 108m3. In this paper, the monthly inflow of lake water is graded as the forecasting quantity. Based on the monthly average of 500hPa circulation index in the Northern Hemisphere, the index of change is used as the forecasting factor to establish the long-term forecast method of monthly inflow of lake water.