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净雨预报误差、洪水预报误差是当前水库实行预报调度的重要风险来源,影响水库综合效益的充分发挥.将净雨预报误差及洪水预报误差作为水库预报系统的荷载,借用可靠度理论分析了洪水预报的可靠性,先采用Monte Carlo直接法分析了大伙房水库净雨预报、洪水预报的单失效模式的可靠性,再分析了不同系统功能函数形式对洪水预报系统失效模式可靠性的影响,在选定系统功能函数的情况下,由Monte Carlo重要抽样的改进方法对系统失效可靠性进行了计算,所得结果可为进一步提高预报误差水平提供理论依据.
Net rain forecast error and flood forecast error are the important risk sources of current reservoir forecasting and dispatching, which will affect the comprehensive benefits of the reservoir.Taking the net rain forecast error and the flood forecast error as the load of the reservoir forecast system, the reliability theory is used to analyze the flood Firstly, Monte Carlo direct method is used to analyze the reliability of the single failure mode of the rain forecast and the flood forecast in the Dahuofang Reservoir. The reliability of the failure modes of the flood forecast system is analyzed again. In the case of selected system function, the failure reliability of the system is calculated by Monte Carlo’s important sampling improvement method, and the results can provide a theoretical basis for further improving the prediction error.