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渔业资源的变动是一个随机过程,它既有确定性趋势,又有随机波动的特性。论文把灰色系统方法和时序分析相结合,用灰色GM(1,1)模型提取渔业资源变动中的确定性趋势,用时序模型描写它的随机波动,从而建立渔业资源动态的灰色时序模型。考虑到渔业资源的变化受到捕捞强度的影响,同时建立渔获量和单位捕捞努力量的渔获量(CPUE)关于捕捞努力量的二元时序模型。利用灰色时序模型和多元时序模型,对舟山渔场渔业资源的动态变化进行分析和预测,结果表明灰色时序模型和多元时序模型能很好地拟合渔业资源的变动过程,精确地预测渔业资源未来的状况。
The change of fishery resources is a stochastic process, which has both deterministic and stochastic volatility. In this paper, gray system method and timing analysis are combined. The gray GM (1,1) model is used to extract the deterministic trend of the change of fishery resources. The temporal fluctuation model is used to describe the stochastic fluctuation of fishery resources, and a gray time series model of fishery resources dynamics is established. Considering that the changes in fishery resources are affected by the intensity of fishing, a catalysis of catches and fishing effort per unit of harvest (CPUE) is used to establish a binary time-series model of fishing effort. The gray time series model and multivariate time series model are used to analyze and predict the dynamic changes of fishery resources in Zhoushan fishery. The results show that gray sequential model and multivariate time series model can well fit the process of fishery resource change, accurately forecast the future of fishery resources situation.