15 ~35 N、105 ~130 E海域台风极值风速分析

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采用非对称台风风场模型,对1961~2007年进入(15°~35°N,105°~130°E)的每个热带气旋(TC)风场进行计算,得到0.5°×0.5°网格上的TC风速.使用近岸自动气象站实测资料对计算结果进行对比分析,结果表明计算风速与实测风速较吻合,计算风速基本合理.采用Poisson-Gumbel联合概率分布模型,计算每个网格TC影响下不同重现期l0m高度的极值风速;使用海上、小岛共10座测风塔14个台风影响过程的大风观测数据计算得到10~90m切变系数为0.0791,使用该关系式将各网格点TC影响下不同重现期10m高度的极值风速推算到90m高度,可作为中国近海风资源开发和其他海洋工程开发及安全运行的科学依据.
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