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推进“四化”协调发展,需要把握“四化”协调发展的空间分异特征、空间相关性以及动态演进情况。利用安徽省16地市2001—2014年“四化”的相关数据,运用全局主成分分析法、几何平均法与HR模型测算了“四化”综合发展水平和协调发展度,进一步利用非参数核密度估计模型,分析“四化”综合水平和协调度的动态演进情况,最后采用探索性空间数据分析方法,探讨了“四化”协调度的空间相关性。结果显示:安徽省地市的“四化”协调度呈上升趋势,区域范围逐渐扩大,形成了皖江城市区域增长极;信息化、农业现代化增速较快但明显滞后;安徽省地市“四化”协调度有空间相关性,表现出正向集聚性,尤其是皖江城市内部空间溢出效应明显,“四化”协调度形成了良性互动关系,但这种关系有限;“四化”综合水平和协调度有区域差异,且呈扩大之势。研究认为,要利用皖江城市承接产业转移的契机,加快推进信息化建设;继续加大皖江城市带区位优势和集群优势,提高区域内的经济、技术的溢出,发挥皖江城市带领头作用和辐射效应,实现“四化”协调联动发展;加强邻近区域的合作实现双赢,实现区域的均衡发展。
To promote coordinated development of “four modernizations”, we need to grasp the spatial differentiation characteristics, spatial correlation and dynamic evolution of coordinated development of “four modernizations”. Based on the data from 2001 to 2014 and the “Four Modernizations” of 16 cities in Anhui Province, the global principal component analysis, geometric mean and HR model were used to calculate the comprehensive development level and coordinated development degree of “Four Modernizations” The non-parametric kernel density estimation model is used to analyze the dynamic evolution of the integrated level and coordination degree of “Sihua”, and finally the spatial correlation of “Sihua ” coordination degree is explored by exploratory spatial data analysis method. The results show that the coordination degree of “four modernizations” in the cities and prefectures of Anhui Province is on the rise, and the regional scope is gradually expanding, forming a regional growth pole in the city of Wanjiang; the informatization and agricultural modernization have a faster but obviously slower lag; City ’s “four ” ’ s degree of coordination have spatial correlation, showing the positive agglomeration, especially the internal spillover effect of the inner city of Wanjiang is obvious, the coordination of the “four modernizations” has formed a benign interactive relationship, but this relationship Limited; “Four” There are regional differences in the level of integration and coordination, and showed an upward trend. The study suggests that we should make use of the opportunity of Wanjiang city to undertake industrial transfer and speed up the construction of informationization. We will continue to increase the regional advantages and cluster advantages of the urban cluster in the city of Wanjiang, increase the economic and technological spillover in the region, and play a leading role in the city of Wanjiang And radiation effects to achieve coordinated development of “four modernizations”; strengthen cooperation in neighboring regions to achieve win-win results and achieve balanced development in the region.