论文部分内容阅读
本文基于交易方程式和股票、住房市场发展对改革开放以来的货币-价格关系进行了多角度实证分析。研究发现:中国的货币-价格关系不服从交易方程式规则,存在价格增长率与产出增长率之和低于货币增长率的货币超额倾向;通过将股票和住房市场引入交易方程进行实证分析发现,我国货币化进程在2008年出现了结构突变,股票和住房市场由持续拉升货币需求转向货币吸收与回吐的交替过程,形成对通胀率上升和波动的显著影响。其政策含义是:货币供给增长率需缓慢下降,由总量调控转向产品市场、股票和住房市场的货币需求结构调控。
Based on the transaction equation and the development of the stock and housing markets, this paper conducts a multi-angle empirical analysis of the monetary-price relationship since the reform and opening up. The result shows that: (1) China’s currency-price relationship is not subject to the rules of the transaction equation, and there exists an excess of money whose sum of price growth rate and output growth rate is lower than the monetary growth rate. By introducing the stock and housing markets into the trading equation, In 2008, the monetization process of our country experienced a structural change. The stock and housing markets shifted from the continuous pull-up of monetary demand to the process of currency absorption and take-back, resulting in a significant impact on the rise and fluctuation of the inflation rate. The policy implication is that the growth rate of money supply needs to slow down and the overall regulation and control should be shifted to the structural adjustment and control of the money demand in the product market, stock and housing markets.