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目前,在中央银行“放短锁长”的货币政策的干预下,金融机构已经开始进行去杠杆化。因此,2014年不会出现像2013年那样的流动性紧张的局面2014年年初以来,尽管经济失速、非标萎缩、通胀下行、资金宽松,但长端利率的下行之路依旧令人充满疑虑。市场存在两个风险:一是政府刺激导致经济超预期复苏,二是资金面再度紧张。笔者认为,这两个风险只是让长端利率看上去一波三折,但短期内不会改变其下行趋势。一方面,政府目前的稳增长意在托底而非刺激,经济超预期上行的
At present, financial institutions have begun to deleverage under the intervention of the Central Bank’s “short-lock” monetary policy. As a result, there will be no liquidity tense situation in 2014 as in 2014 Since the beginning of 2014, despite the economic slowdown, non-standard shrinkage, inflationary downturn and loose capital, the downward spiral of long-term interest rates is still full of doubts. There are two risks in the market: First, the government stimulates the economy to exceed the expected recovery; second, the capital level is tense again. The author believes that these two risks only make long-term interest rates appear to twists and turns, but in the short term will not change its downward trend. On the one hand, the government’s current steady growth is intended to be bottomless instead of stimulating, with the economy exceeding expectations