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今天的中国与上世纪60年代后的德国至少有3个共同特征:长期快速增长、货币低估和人口老龄化。虽然德国在经济增长放缓和人口老龄化的形势下,平稳地过渡到后工业时代的过程喜忧参半,但分析德国得失背后的原因,或许对中国转型有益。经济史上有一些近乎奇迹般的经济增长案例,其中绝大多数出现在二十世纪上半叶。二战之后,许多欧洲国家不仅在废墟上重建并蓬勃发展,而且还摆脱了以往的敌意,创建出一个和平、民主的欧盟(European Union)。在亚洲,我们见证了类似的发展。日本从战
Today, China has at least three common characteristics with Germany in the 1960s: long-term rapid growth, undervalued currencies and an aging population. Although the process of smooth transition to the post-industrial era under mixed economic growth and population aging is mixed, the analysis of the reasons behind Germany’s gains and losses may be beneficial to China’s transition. There are some miraculous economic growth cases in economic history, the vast majority of which occurred in the first half of the twentieth century. After World War II, many European countries not only rebuilt and thrived on the rubble, but also freed themselves from past hostility and created a peaceful and democratic European Union. In Asia, we witnessed similar developments. Japan from the war