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无论从上面我们阐述的历史事实,还是从经济学理论分析来讲,产业政策并不必然是会失败的,也并不必然是成功的。产业政策需要在一定的条件下才能成功。由于人类认知和信息的不完全性的限制,我们不可能找到产业政策成功的充分条件,但我们通过历史资料研究可以发现一些产业政策成功的必要条件。尽管即使满足全部必要条件,我们也不能保证一项产业政策的成功,但至少我们可以提高产业政策成功的概率。
Whether from the historical facts we have set forth above or from the perspective of economic theory, industrial policy does not necessarily fail, nor does it necessarily succeed. Industrial policy needs to be successful under certain conditions. Due to the imperfection of human cognition and information, we can not find sufficient conditions for the success of industrial policies. However, we can find some necessary conditions for the success of industrial policies through historical data research. Although we can not guarantee the success of an industrial policy even if we meet all the necessary conditions, at least we can raise the probability of the success of industrial policies.