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在构建的旅游地社会-生态系统动力学模型的基础上,通过调节代表旅游投资和旅游竞争力的参数,运用分岔理论和Mat CONT软件绘制了系统的双参数分岔曲线,并分析了参数不同取值情况下的系统几种可能的发展情景。研究表明:系统动力学及其分岔理论是一种可以用来解释旅游地社会-生态系统的发展情景的有效工具;通过调节表示旅游地投资政策和其所处区域旅游竞争压力的参数,可以使旅游地社会-生态系统出现4种可能的情景,即周而复始的周期运动情景、旅游发展的灾难性情景、环境的不可持续情景,以及旅游地社会-生态系统的可持续平稳发展情景;旅游地社会-生态系统周而复始周期运动情景符合Gunderson和Holling提出的适应性循环理论,即快速增长、稳定、释放和重组四个阶段;出现旅游地社会-生态系统的可持续平稳发展情景则需要通过相关政策将旅游地所处区域的旅游竞争压力和对设施的投资水平维持在一个较低的水平,若通过某些政策使得区域内旅游竞争压力变大,那么旅游地社会-生态系统会跨过阈值进入旅游发展灾难性情景,而若政策决策者太贪婪,一味的发展旅游业和追逐经济利益,增加对旅游设施的投资,而忽略了环境,那么旅游地社会-生态系统会跨过阈值出现环境的不可持续情景或者周而复始周期性运动情景。
Based on the constructed socio-ecosystem dynamics model of tourism destination, the dual-parameter bifurcation curve of the system is drawn by adjusting the parameters that represent tourism investment and tourism competitiveness by using bifurcation theory and Mat CONT software. The parameters Several possible scenarios for different value scenarios. The results show that system dynamics and its bifurcation theory are effective tools to explain the socio-ecosystem development of tourism destinations. By adjusting the parameters that indicate the investment policies of tourism destinations and the competitive pressures of tourism in the region where they are located, Four possible scenarios of tourism-society-ecosystem emerge: cyclical scenario of cyclical movement, disastrous scenario of tourism development, unsustainable scenario of environment, and sustainable and steady development of social-ecological system in tourist destination; Social-Ecosystem Cycle Cycles The motion scenario is in accordance with the adaptive cycle theory proposed by Gunderson and Holling, that is, rapid growth, stabilization, release and reorganization. The sustainable and stable development scenarios of tourism-society-ecosystems need to pass the relevant policies The tourism competition pressure in the tourist area and the level of investment in facilities will be kept at a relatively low level. If certain policies are adopted to make tourism competition in the region more pressured, the tourism-society-ecological system will cross the threshold Tourism develops catastrophic scenarios, and if policymakers are too greedy and blind to development Travel industry and the pursuit of economic interests, increase investment in tourism facilities, while ignoring the environment, the tourism social - ecological system will cross the threshold appear unsustainable situation or environment periodic motion scene again and again.