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一、近期景气状况分析我们选择工业总产值、社会消费品零售额、货币流通量、银行工资性现金支出、(国有)基建投资五个指标作为反映景气状况的一致景气指标,并加以分析。今年头3个月,乡及乡以上工业总产值的增长率均在14.5%左右,保持平稳走势。社会消费品零售额增长率今年一季度略有回升,3月份为24.5%货币流通量的同比增长率由1995年1、2月的30%急速下降。银行工资性现金支出月同比增长率的不规则变动较大,较过去15年的年平均增长率低7.7个百分点。(国有)基建投资月累计值的同比增长率1995年出现大幅度回落,与过去15的平均投资增长率相比,处于较低的水平上。由以上五个指标构成的一致合成指数 CI(以1987年的平均值为100),从1994年11
First, the recent boom analysis We choose the gross industrial output value, retail sales of social consumer goods, currency liquidity, bank cash payouts, (state-owned) capital investment five indicators as a consistent economic indicators reflect the economic conditions, and be analyzed. In the first three months of this year, the growth rates of the gross industrial output of townships and rural areas were both at around 14.5%, maintaining a steady trend. The growth rate of retail sales of social consumer goods rose slightly in the first quarter of this year. The year-on-year growth rate of 24.5% of currency circulation in March dropped sharply from 30% in January and February 1995. The irregular month-on-month growth rate of bank cash expenditures fluctuated significantly, which is 7.7 percentage points lower than the average annual growth rate of the past 15 years. The year-on-year rate of increase in the monthly cumulative investment in infrastructure (state-owned) investment dropped sharply in 1995, at a relatively low level compared with the average investment growth rate of 15 in the past. The Consolidated Composite Index, CI, which consists of the above five indicators (averaged from 1987), increased from 11 in 1994