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“中国奇迹”和“中国模式”是学界探讨的热点话题,但目前鲜有关于中国政治商业周期的研究。本文透过1978~2012年中国分省面板数据的实证分析发现以下特点:第一,中国政治商业周期整体上呈现“三上二下式倒U型分布”特征;第二,对中国政治商业周期的历史解释需要放在“政治集权和经济分权”的制度安排和外部政治经济冲击这两个视角下进行;第三,中国政治商业周期中的“倒U型分布”之所以会表现出显著的“三上二下”特征,可能和中国官员的真实任期和异地任职制度密切相关;第四,对外部政治经济冲击而言,政治冲击的扭曲作用弱于经济冲击,而面对经济冲击时的政策差异则会对政治商业周期产生差异性影响。基于此,本文提出下述观点:第一,中国官员内部流动性的加剧可能诱发官员的短视行为;第二,官员外地任职制度对经济发展存在一定的冲击和波动。因此,优化中国官员的晋升任职制度十分重要。
The “China Miracle” and “China Mode” are the hot topics discussed by academics, but there are few researches on the political business cycle in China at present. Through empirical analysis of the panel data of provinces in China from 1978 to 2012, the dissertation finds the following characteristics: First, the political business cycle of China as a whole presents the “inverted U-shaped distribution of three types and two types” features; second, The historical explanation of the business cycle needs to be put on the perspective of the institutional arrangements of “political centralization and economic decentralization” and external political and economic shocks. Third, the “inverted U-shaped distribution” in China’s political business cycle needs to be “ The reason why the ”three ups and two inferiors" will be obvious may be closely related to the actual tenure of Chinese officials and the appointment of off-site officials. Fourthly, the distorting effect of the political shock on the external political and economic impact is weaker than that of the economy Shocks, while the policy differences in the face of economic shocks will have a differential impact on the political business cycle. Based on this, this article puts forward the following views: First, the intensification of internal liquidity in Chinese officials may induce officials’ short-sighted behavior; second, the official appointment system has certain impact and fluctuation on economic development. Therefore, it is very important to optimize the system of promotion and appointment of Chinese officials.