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基于对2006年国际国内经济金融形势和2007年走势的分析和预测,本文提出以下主要观点:受美国经济增长势头减弱的影响,2007年全球经济增速将趋缓,国内经济在保持良好增长态势的同时,亟待解决以下问题:投资反弹压力仍然较大;流动性持续过剩;国际收支不平衡,与美国等发达经济体的贸易失衡加剧;房价依然偏高,房地产调控有待加强;物价上涨压力加大,资产价格膨胀;产能过剩矛盾可能加剧;贷款增速回落的基础尚不稳固。商业银行应加快创新,主动应对流动性过剩,同时切实防范固定资产投资特别是房地产投资增长过快带来的风险。
Based on the analysis and forecast of the international and domestic economic and financial situations in 2006 and the trend in 2007, this paper puts forward the following main points: Due to the weakening of the U.S. economic growth, the global economic growth will slow down in 2007 and the domestic economy will maintain its good growth momentum At the same time, the following issues are urgently needed to be solved: the pressure of investment rebound is still high; the liquidity is in surplus; the balance of payments is unbalanced; the trade imbalance with developed economies such as the United States is aggravated; the price of housing is still too high; the regulation and control of real estate needs to be strengthened; The expansion of asset prices will aggravate the contradiction of overcapacity. The basis for the slowdown in loan growth is not yet stable. Commercial banks should speed up innovation and take the initiative to cope with excess liquidity while effectively guarding against the risks brought by the investment in fixed assets, especially the rapid growth of real estate investment.