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本文主要用实证方法分析了新一轮经济周期上升阶段的运行特征:经济平稳持续高速增长,其中2003年—2006年经济增长偏快;少数年份略显通缩,多数年份低度通胀;消费投资和净出口以及第一二三产业共同拉动了经济增长,但这些方面的失衡加剧;区域经济协调发展已经起步;粗放经济增长方式和数量型外贸增长方式的转变虽有进展,但无根本改变;经济效益虽有提高,但速度效益型的特征仍很明显;就业和居民收入后三年比前五年都有较大改善。最后就拉长新一轮经济周期上升阶段提出了设想。
This paper analyzes the operating characteristics of a new round of economic cycle ascending stage: the steady and sustained high-speed economic growth, of which the rapid economic growth in 2003-2006; slight deflation in a few years, low inflation in most years; consumer investment and Net exports and the first two or three industries jointly stimulate economic growth, but these imbalances intensified; the coordinated development of regional economy has started; although the transformation of the extensive economic growth mode and the quantitative foreign trade growth mode have progressed, there has been no fundamental change; the economy Although the benefits have been improved, the characteristics of speed-benefit type are still obvious; the employment and resident income have greatly improved in the three years after the previous five years. Finally put forward the idea of lengthening the new round of economic cycle rising stage.