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21世纪以来国内众多学者对金融发展和经济增长的相互作用进行了大量的实证研究,得出了不尽相同的结论。文章主要参考2003年一季度至2012年四季度最近十年的数据,考虑到金融发展与经济增长可能存在的双向促进作用,以及经济发展的惯性,采用多变量的VECM模型,在众多的研究金融中介发展的指标中采用主成分分析选取了代表金融发展的规模与效率的两个指标,运用脉冲响应函数来对金融发展与经济增长相互作用进行分析研究。
Since the 21st century, many domestic scholars conducted a large amount of empirical research on the interaction between financial development and economic growth, and reached different conclusions. The article mainly refers to the data from the first quarter of 2003 to the fourth quarter of 2012 in the recent ten years. Considering the possible two-way promotion of financial development and economic growth as well as the inertia of economic development, the paper adopts a multivariate VECM model, The index of intermediary development uses principal component analysis to select two indexes that represent the scale and efficiency of financial development. The impulse response function is used to analyze the interaction between financial development and economic growth.