【摘 要】
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为了说明加倍GLA四阶GCM的水平分辨率,从4°(纬度)×5°(经度)到2°×2.5°网格如何能显著地提高该模式的预报能力,这里介绍两个例个。 第一个个例是1978年9月9日1200GMT的G
【机 构】
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论文部分内容阅读
为了说明加倍GLA四阶GCM的水平分辨率,从4°(纬度)×5°(经度)到2°×2.5°网格如何能显著地提高该模式的预报能力,这里介绍两个例个。 第一个个例是1978年9月9日1200GMT的GLA分析后的36小时预报。在这期间位于加拿大的新斯科舍(Nova Scotia)南岸的一个1004hPa弱低压在向东北东移动过程中强烈地发展到987hPa(见图1a和图1b)。这个被称为伊利沙白Ⅱ皇后的风暴的发展被2°×2.5°网格模式非常好地模拟出来。这个模式预报出的中心气压是987hPa,这比4°× 5°模式的预报低10hPa(见图1c和图1d)。这个风暴模拟中的地表强迫和高空涡度收支的相对重要性,将在这次会议上讨论。
To illustrate how doubling the horizontal resolution of a GLA fourth-order GCM from 4 ° (latitude) × 5 ° (longitude) to 2 ° × 2.5 ° can dramatically improve the prediction capability of this model, two examples are presented here. The first case is a 36-hour forecast after GLA analysis of 1200 GMT on September 9, 1978. During this period a weak 1004 hPa at the southern coast of Nova Scotia, Canada, developed strongly to 987 hPa during the eastward northeastward movement (see Figure 1a and Figure 1b). The development of this storm, known as Queen Elizabeth II, is very well modeled by the 2 ° × 2.5 ° grid pattern. The predicted center pressure for this mode is 987 hPa, which is 10 hPa lower than the 4 ° × 5 ° forecast (see Figure 1c and Figure 1d). The relative importance of surface forcing and upper-air vorticity in this storm simulation will be discussed at this meeting.
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