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突发事件爆发后通常会持续演化一段时间,识别突发事件连锁反应的演化路径是突发事件应对的关键环节。结合知识元在描述突发事件领域事物知识方面的优势,将共性知识元模型引入到事件演化路径推理中,建立元事件模型和客体模型,利用不同属性间关系获取事件和客体的破坏函数、作用函数、触发函数和影响函数,从而提出一种通过属性和映射关系预测连锁反应演化路径的方法。最后以滑坡事件为例验证了该方法的有效性。
The sudden evolution usually lasts for a period of time, and identifying the evolutionary path of the emergency response is the key point of emergency response. Based on the advantage of knowledge element in describing the knowledge of things in the field of emergency, the common knowledge meta-model is introduced into the reasoning of event evolution path, the meta-event model and object model are established, and the destruction functions of events and objects are obtained by the relationship of different attributes Function, triggering function and influence function, a method of predicting the evolutionary chain of chain reaction through attribute and mapping is proposed. Finally, taking the landslide as an example, the validity of this method is verified.