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目的为数量特征敏感问题的二阶段抽样提供科学的调查方法及其统计量计算公式,为制定北京市艾滋病高危人群预防控制规划、措施提供科学数据。方法使用数量特征敏感问题加法模型、二阶段随机抽样、均数的性质、方差的性质等数理统计的理论与方法。结果推导出数量特征敏感问题加法模型二阶段抽样调查总体均值的估计量及其方差、估计方差的计算公式。运用该文提供的调查方法及其统计公式,调查估计得出北京市男男性行为人群首次男男性行为的平均年龄为21.9 747岁。结论该文提供的数量特征敏感问题二阶段抽样的调查方法及其统计公式科学可行。
Objective To provide a scientific survey method and statistical formula for two-stage sampling of the sensitive features of quantity and quantity to provide scientific data for the formulation of prevention and control plans and measures for high-risk population of AIDS in Beijing. The method uses mathematical statistics such as additive model of number characteristic sensitivity, two-stage random sampling, the nature of mean and the nature of variance. Results The estimator of the population mean value and its variance of the two-stage sample survey plus the formula for calculating the variance were derived. Using the survey method and statistical formula provided in the article, the survey estimated that the average age of first-time MSM among MSM in Beijing is 21.9747 years. Conclusions This paper provides a survey method and its statistical formula for two-phase sampling of feature-sensitive problems which are scientific and feasible.