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预测三化螟蛾的最早出现日,对于冬春期治螟,决定早稻栽培治螟及以后各代螟蛾的发生预测等都有一定意义。如何提高预测的准确性,成为近年稻螟预测研究的重点之一。笔者自1956年以来就积累的资料和探索的结果加以初步分析,草成此文提供讨论。 一、本地区预测 在同一地区第一代三化螟蛾始见期的预测,除直接以螟虫发育进度作简单推测外,通过积累资料用相关统计法来推断预测,这已为各方所重视。赵善欢等(1956)提出了利用“冬春低温期”推测第一代三化螟蛾始见期的概念,认为广州每年都有一段气温下降较甚的“冬春低温期”,其后有时还会出现短暂的“低温小段”,两者的出现时间在日历上变异颇大,密切地影响第一代螟蛾的发生时期,如“冬春低温期”来临早,结束快,“低温小段”次数少的年份,螟蛾发生也早,相反则迟。广东省农科院(1958)进一步认为“冬春低温期”结束之后,当气温回升到16℃以上,连续经过两旬,第一代螟蛾即在后一旬出现。江西省农科所(1955)亦有类
Predicting the earliest appearance date of Pythium inflata was of certain significance for the control of the stem borer in winter and spring, and the prediction of the occurrence of the stem borer in the early rice and future generations of the moth. How to improve the accuracy of prediction has become one of the focuses of the research on rice borer prediction in recent years. The author has carried on the preliminary analysis to the accumulated data and the exploration result since 1956, this article provides the discussion. First, the region predicted the first generation of the same generation Pygerellum moth in the same period of the initial forecast, in addition to direct development of stem borers for a simple guess, through the accumulation of data using relevant statistics to infer the forecast, which has been valued by all parties . Zhao Huanhuan et al. (1956) put forward the concept of using the “winter and spring low temperature period” to infer the first generation of the stem borer moth, and concluded that there is a “winter and spring low temperature period” There will be a short “short period of low temperature,” the occurrence of both the calendar variation in a large, closely affect the occurrence of the first generation of moth period, such as “winter and spring low temperature” coming early, ending fast, “low temperature” Few years of age, moth moth occurs early, on the contrary is late. Guangdong Academy of Agricultural Sciences (1958) further believes that “after the end of winter and spring low temperature”, when the temperature rose to above 16 ℃, after two consecutive days, the first generation of moths that appear in the latter ten days. Jiangxi Provincial Agricultural Institute (1955) also have class