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金融危机可以通过贸易和资本流动的渠道传导到中国。由于当前国内利率没有市场化,因此利率和汇率政策在一定程度上抵御了金融危机的冲击。但在中国有所放宽金融和资本账户下,金融危机传导到我国经济的路径更趋多元化。基于这样的前提,如何应对金融危机冲击将成为一个很值得研究的问题。研究的分析框架、政策措施及其效果越来越受到政府部门和中外学者的密切关注。本文基于一个实物部门与金融部门相统合的可计算性一般均衡(Computable General Equilibrium,CGE)模型,从比较动态的角度定量分析在金融自由化背景下应对危机的公共支出政策对中间品、相关产品价格和产量、宏观经济指标、金融指标及居民收入的影响,并提出模拟结果的相关政策含义,为政策的制定提供更充分的理论依据。
The financial crisis can be transmitted to China through trade and capital flows. Due to the fact that the current domestic interest rate is not marketized, the interest rate and exchange rate policies have to a certain extent resisted the impact of the financial crisis. However, with the liberalization of China’s financial and capital accounts, the path of the financial crisis to China’s economy has become more diversified. Based on this premise, how to deal with the impact of the financial crisis will become a very worthwhile study. The analytical framework, policy measures and their effects of the research are more and more closely watched by government departments and Chinese and foreign scholars. Based on a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model that integrates the physical sector with the financial sector, this paper quantitatively analyzes the public expenditure policies that respond to the crisis in the financial liberalization context from the perspective of comparative dynamics. Price and output, macroeconomic indicators, financial indicators and the impact of household income, and put forward the relevant policy implications of the simulation results, to provide a more adequate theoretical basis for policy formulation.