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运用LMDI完全分解方法将1995—2010年三个“五年”规划期间我国制造业产业CO2排放分解为排放因子效应、能源强度效应、能源结构效应、产业结构效应和产业规模效应。通过产业发展与CO2排放脱钩测度模型计算,发现制造业经历了强复钩(1996—1999)、弱脱钩(2000—2001)、扩张性复钩(2002—2004)、弱脱钩(2005—2010)四个阶段。研究发现:产业规模扩张是导致我国制造业CO2排放增加的主要原因,产业结构变化也在一定程度上影响了CO2的排放变化,而能源强度降低是CO2排放减少的主要因素,排放因子效应和能源结构效应对CO2排放的变化起不到决定性的作用,但也在一定程度上影响了CO2的排放。
The decomposition of China’s manufacturing industry CO2 emissions into emission factor, energy intensity effect, energy structure effect, industrial structure effect and industrial scale effect can be decomposed into LMDI complete decomposition method during the three “five years” planning period of 1995-2010. Through the calculation of the decoupling measure between industrial development and CO2 emission, we found that the manufacturing industry experienced strong double hook (1996-1999), weak double hook (2000-2001), expansive double hook (2002-2004) and weak decoupling (2005-2010) four stages. The results show that the expansion of industrial scale is the main reason that leads to the increase of CO2 emissions in China’s manufacturing industry. The changes of industrial structure also affect the changes of CO2 emissions to a certain extent, while the decrease of energy intensity is the main factor of CO2 emission reduction. The emission factor effect and energy The structural effect plays a decisive role in the change of CO2 emissions, but it also affects the CO2 emissions to a certain extent.