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大型客机的定价是否合理直接关系到其市场占有量和能否取得商业成功。以波音和空客干线飞机的相关数据和价格为样本,基于偏最小二乘回归分析法(Partial Least Squares,PLS)建立了大型客机的价格预测模型。利用该价格预测模型,结合等工程价值比修正,对国产大型客机C919的价格进行了预测,并对上市时间和产量对价格的影响分别进行了计算分析,给出了价格随时间和产量的变化趋势。对C919的上市时间、产量和定价等决策问题具有一定的指导意义和参考价值。
Large passenger aircraft pricing is directly related to its market share and the ability to achieve commercial success. Based on the data and prices of Boeing and Airbus mainline aircraft, the price forecast model of large passenger aircraft is established based on PLS (Partial Least Squares). Using the price forecasting model and the correction of engineering value ratio, the price of domestic large-scale passenger aircraft C919 is predicted. The impact of time-to-market and output on price is separately calculated and analyzed, and the change of price with time and output is given trend. It has certain guiding significance and reference value to decision-making of C919, such as time to market, output and pricing.