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本文研究了青藏高原北部地区强震活动的特征,结果是:地震活跃期为230—250年,平静期为130—150年;喜马拉雅南缘、青藏高原南部地区强震与本区强震明显相关,喜马拉雅南缘与缅甸北部地区发生强震后本区发震的概率分别为87.5%和66.7%;本区7级地震分带交替发生,最先发生的两个6级地震对预测未来7级地震发震地点有一定意义;中强震在8级地震前不活跃,而在7级地震前比较活跃,且青海北部与西部发生6级地震后,甘肃东南部或甘青川交界有5级地震活动。据此判断本区未来10年内存在发生7级强震的危险。
In this paper, the characteristics of strong earthquakes in the northern part of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau are studied. The results show that the active period of the earthquake is 230-250 years and the quiet period is 130-150 years. Strong earthquakes in the southern Himalayan and southern Tibetan Plateau are obviously related to the strong earthquakes in this region . The probability of seismogenic events in the southern area of the Himalayas and northern Myanmar was 87.5% and 66.7% respectively after the strong earthquakes occurred. The earthquakes with magnitude 7 earthquakes happened alternately. The first two M 6 earthquakes affected the prediction of the future 7 The moderate earthquakes have some significance before the MS8 earthquakes but before the MS7 earthquakes. After the MS6 earthquakes in the north and west of Qinghai, there are 5 earthquakes at the junction of southeastern Gansu and Gansu-Qingchuan activity. Accordingly, it is possible to determine the danger of a magnitude 7 strong earthquake occurring in this area in the next 10 years.