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基于Laspeyres完全分解技术测算了东部能源消费的变动并进行纵向与横向比较,结果表明:经济增长是推动区域能耗增长的主要因素,技术进步与结构调整对能源消费起到节约作用;其中,部门能源效率的提高是节能的主导因素,工业部门的结构比重与能源效率的微弱变动都会对整体节能产生很大的影响,其能源效率的提高是技术节能的主要原因;结构调整的短期节能效应并不明显,且呈阶段性变化的特征,根源在于高耗能产业投资效应与前期能源消费的提前透支及其滞后影响,产业结构效应弱化;最后给出了产业结构与能源结构优化、节能技术进步等方面的政策建议。
Based on the Laspeyres decomposition technique, the changes of eastern energy consumption are calculated and compared vertically and horizontally. The results show that economic growth is the main factor to promote the regional energy consumption growth, and technological progress and structural adjustment play an energy saving role. Among them, The improvement of energy efficiency is the dominant factor of energy saving. The structural proportion of industry and the weak change of energy efficiency all have a great impact on the overall energy saving. The improvement of energy efficiency is the main reason for energy saving. The short-term energy saving effect of structural adjustment Not obvious, and the characteristics of the stage change are rooted in the investment effect of the high energy-consuming industries and the advance energy consumption and the lagging impact of the advance, the weakening of the industrial structure effect; Finally, given the industrial structure and energy structure optimization, energy-saving technological progress And other aspects of policy recommendations.