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2013年债市熊市行情的一个重要诱因是流动性长期维持中性偏紧。在2014年货币政策仍将延续偏紧基调的普遍预期下,未来一段时间,债券市场仍难有明显机会。南京银行金融市场部分析认为,2014年货币政策易紧难松。由于机构去杠杆化不明显,央行既要兼顾不发生系统性流动性风险,还要能实现其宏观审慎的调控目标,因此,货币政策取向依旧偏紧。国际方面,美联储已经着手退出QE,将不可避免地抬升国际利率水平。北京时间2013年12月19日凌晨,美联储发表声明,宣布将现行每月450亿
An important incentive for the bond market bear market in 2013 is that liquidity has remained neutral in the long term. Under the general expectation that monetary policy will continue to be tightened in 2014, it is still difficult for the bond market to have a clear chance for some time to come. Analyzed by the Bank of Nanjing’s financial market department, monetary policy will not be easy to tighten in 2014. Due to the fact that the deleveraging of institutions is not obvious, the central bank should not only take systemic liquidity risks into consideration, but also achieve its macro-prudential regulation and control targets. Therefore, the monetary policy orientation is still tight. Internationally, the Fed has already started to withdraw from the QE and will inevitably raise the international interest rate. Beijing early morning of December 19, 2013, the Fed issued a statement announcing the current monthly 45 billion