革新与发明“长波”

• 作 者: N.S.索洛维耶夫 李宏明
• 出 处: 世界研究与开发报导
• 发表日期: 2004年期
• 关键词: 专利数 变动过程 三次浪潮 经济兴衰 周期长度 十六世纪 第四次浪潮 动态过程 工业部门 上升阶段

在过去十年间,人们对引起资本主义经济兴衰的长期周期性变化的原因又发生了莫大的兴趣。世界各国的学者都把这种长期变化同苏联经济学家N.D.康德拉季耶夫的名字联系起来,因为正是他揭示了许多经济指标的变动过程中的长期起伏现象(这里所谓“长期”就是比通常的经济周期的时间长),以及这一起伏同革新动态过程的长期起伏的可能关系。他证明了历史上已出现过三次浪潮。第一次浪潮始于十八世纪末,持续到十六世纪中叶;第二次

In the past decade, there has been great interest in the reasons for the long-term cyclical changes that have caused the rise and fall of the capitalist economy. Scholars from all over the world have linked this long-term change with the name of the Soviet economist ND Kondratiev, who reveals the long-term ups and downs in the process of changing many economic indicators (“long-term” means Longer than normal economic cycles) and the possible long-term fluctuations of the ups and downs in the dynamic process. He proved that there have been three waves in history. The first wave began in the late eighteenth century and lasted until the mid-sixteenth century; the second time